Planned Obsolescence
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Archive
About
I underestimated AI capabilities (again)
Revisiting a prediction ten months early
Mar 5
•
Ajeya Cotra
91
27
9
Latest
Top
Discussions
Takeoff speeds rule everything around me
Not all short timelines are created equal
Feb 12
60
9
9
AI predictions for 2026
But first, scoring my predictions for 2025
Jan 14
•
Ajeya Cotra
62
6
4
Self-sufficient AI
No, we don't "have AGI already." But in any case, we should articulate clearer milestones.
Jan 6
•
Ajeya Cotra
53
15
8
OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear
OpenAI says o1-preview can't meaningfully help novices make chemical and biological weapons. Their test results don’t clearly establish this.
Nov 21, 2024
•
Luca Righetti
1
Dangerous capability tests should be harder
We should spend less time proving that today’s AIs are safe and more time figuring out how to tell if tomorrow’s AIs are dangerous.
Aug 20, 2024
•
Luca Righetti
1
Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep…
Oct 10, 2023
•
Ajeya Cotra
1
Language models surprised us
Most experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023. There may be more surprises ahead, so experts should register their…
Aug 29, 2023
•
Ajeya Cotra
1
See all
Planned Obsolescence
Thinking ahead to a future where AI decides everything
Subscribe
Recommendations
View all 11
Epoch AI
Epoch AI
AI as Normal Technology
Sayash Kapoor
ForeWord
Forethought
Strange Cities
Owen Cotton-Barratt
Dwarkesh Podcast
Dwarkesh Patel
Planned Obsolescence
Subscribe
About
Archive
Recommendations
Sitemap
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts
