Planned Obsolescence
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Six milestones for AI automation
What can AI do on its own, and how well?
Apr 3
•
Ajeya Cotra
67
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I underestimated AI capabilities (again)
Revisiting a prediction ten months early
Mar 5
•
Ajeya Cotra
107
29
9
Takeoff speeds rule everything around me
Not all short timelines are created equal
Feb 12
69
10
9
AI predictions for 2026
But first, scoring my predictions for 2025
Jan 14
•
Ajeya Cotra
67
6
4
Self-sufficient AI
No, we don't "have AGI already." But in any case, we should articulate clearer milestones.
Jan 6
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Ajeya Cotra
58
15
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OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear
OpenAI says o1-preview can't meaningfully help novices make chemical and biological weapons. Their test results don’t clearly establish this.
Nov 21, 2024
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Luca Righetti
1
Dangerous capability tests should be harder
We should spend less time proving that today’s AIs are safe and more time figuring out how to tell if tomorrow’s AIs are dangerous.
Aug 20, 2024
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Luca Righetti
1
Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep…
Oct 10, 2023
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Ajeya Cotra
2
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