Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep will both improve rapidly.
Ajeya Cotra
Language models surprised us
Most experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023. There may be more surprises ahead, so experts should register their forecasts now about 2024 and 2025.
AIs accelerating AI research
Researchers could potentially design the next generation of ML models more quickly by delegating some work to existing models, creating a feedback loop of ever-accelerating progress.
Alignment researchers disagree a lot
Many fellow alignment researchers may be operating under radically different assumptions from you.
Training AIs to help us align AIs
If we can accurately recognize good performance on alignment, we could elicit lots of useful alignment work from our models, even if they're playing the training game.
"Aligned" shouldn't be a synonym for "good"
Perfect alignment just means that AI systems won’t want to deliberately disregard their designers' intent; it's not enough to ensure AI is good for the world.
What we're doing here
We’re trying to think ahead to a possible future in which AI is making all the most important decisions.